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- | 3: Definition of a baseline scenario
DSS Step 3: Inventory of Sources
In Step 3 a baseline scenario is defined. The step outlines an answer to the following questions: ‘To what extent additional measures are necessary to improve the water quality?´ and ‘Is there reason to assume that the present situation with respect to the water quality will change of will be different in the future? If so why? Will the problem definition change?´.
In some cases the main sources of pollution have been eliminated already and the system is recovering towards good chemical status. In these cases it is important to identify the possible threats to recovery, but there's no need to take any action except monitoring. Step 3 results in a list (table or map) with future areas of exceedance and their possible sources.
Framework of the step
This step outlines an answer to the following questions:
It is important to identify that also environmental change can affect the behaviour and levels of priority substances. For example, eutrophication can have a significant effect through processes of sediment deposition, burial, advection of particles and changes in the food web (see Koelmans et al. 2001 for a review). Another example would be the effect of climate change on the annual rain pattern and subsequently on the sedimentation-resuspension cycle of hydrophobic chemicals.
In order to interpret the importance of these human induced and environmental “drivers of change", some kind of simulation of their potential effects is necessary. Usually this means making emission scenarios on future loading, defining the current state of the water body and simulating future concentration levels based on the scenarios. Environmental fate models (EFMs) can easily be applied to the simulation stage and their use is reviewed in chapter 6.7of the Annexes . The environmental fate models are computer programs for simulating the concentrations, persistence, levels and transport of chemicals in a model environment. They can be adjusted to local conditions to predict the effects that changes in emissions will have on concentrations and to identify the importance of various environmental processes in transporting the PSs. Because of environmental variation, the behaviour of a given PS will depend on the local conditions (sediment organic carbon, sedimentation,), which should be taken into account in planning management options. The environmental fate models were developed for taking into account the simultaneous and complex processes which together determine the residence times and concentration/emission response of organic substances. Because environmental fate models were developed for organic substances, their application to metallic pollutants is a more complex issue. In the references you will find an overview on Environmental fate modelling for water managers.
It should be clear that there is considerable uncertainty included in the process of identifying future drivers, creating emission scenarios and simulating the load-effect relationship. In order to make good decisions in spite of uncertainty, uncertainty and sensitivity analysis should be performed while depicting the autonomous development scenarios.
This step outlines an answer to the following questions:
- To what extent additional measures are necessary to improve the water quality taking into account the measures already taken (autonomous development)?
- Is there reason to assume that the present situation with respect to the water quality will change or will be different in the future? If so why? Will the problem definition change?
In some cases the main sources of pollution have been eliminated already or will be eliminated in the near future and the system is recovering toward good chemical status. In these cases it is important to identify the possible threats to recovery, but there's no need to take any action except monitoring.
A key issue in answering the previous question is the definition of autonomous development, which can be considered as development which is beyond our control. This can include diverse things, such as:
- Changes in industry (new plants under construction, others closing down);
- Economic development (increase in consumption or production output);
- Human population increase or decrease in the catchment area;
- Development in agriculture, technology, legislation, etc.;
- Environmental change (i.e. rainfall, flooding, temperature, eutrophication);
- Policies.
It is important to identify that also environmental change can affect the behaviour and levels of priority substances. For example, eutrophication can have a significant effect through processes of sediment deposition, burial, advection of particles and changes in the food web (see Koelmans et al. 2001 for a review). Another example would be the effect of climate change on the annual rain pattern and subsequently on the sedimentation-resuspension cycle of hydrophobic chemicals.
In order to interpret the importance of these human induced and environmental “drivers of change", some kind of simulation of their potential effects is necessary. Usually this means making emission scenarios on future loading, defining the current state of the water body and simulating future concentration levels based on the scenarios. Environmental fate models (EFMs) can easily be applied to the simulation stage and their use is reviewed in chapter 6.7of the Annexes . The environmental fate models are computer programs for simulating the concentrations, persistence, levels and transport of chemicals in a model environment. They can be adjusted to local conditions to predict the effects that changes in emissions will have on concentrations and to identify the importance of various environmental processes in transporting the PSs. Because of environmental variation, the behaviour of a given PS will depend on the local conditions (sediment organic carbon, sedimentation,), which should be taken into account in planning management options. The environmental fate models were developed for taking into account the simultaneous and complex processes which together determine the residence times and concentration/emission response of organic substances. Because environmental fate models were developed for organic substances, their application to metallic pollutants is a more complex issue. In the references you will find an overview on Environmental fate modelling for water managers.
It should be clear that there is considerable uncertainty included in the process of identifying future drivers, creating emission scenarios and simulating the load-effect relationship. In order to make good decisions in spite of uncertainty, uncertainty and sensitivity analysis should be performed while depicting the autonomous development scenarios.
Sources of information
In the Tools section additional information on Environmental fate modeling for water managers is provided.
The table below can be used as a format for presenting the future areas of exceedance and substances.
In the Tools section additional information on Environmental fate modeling for water managers is provided.
Other sources of information are:
- Economic development scenarios (regional economic input-output tables)
- Environmental permits for opening factors
- Existing decisions (phase out, etc.)
- Environmental monitoring (universities, institutes)
- IPPC
, HELCOM ... - Previous round Roof reports
- Article-5 reports
The table below can be used as a format for presenting the future areas of exceedance and substances.
| Possible areas of exceedance 2015 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | 3 | … | ||
| Substance | TBT | x | |||
| DEHP | |||||
| Atrazine | x | x | |||
| … | |||||
| Possible areas of exceedance 2021 | |||||
| 1 | 2 | 3 | … | ||
| Substance | TBT | ||||
| DEHP | x | x | |||
| Atrazine | |||||
| … | |||||
| Possible areas of exceedance 2027 | |||||
| 1 | 2 | 3 | … | ||
| Substance | 1 | ||||
| 2 | x | ||||
| 3 | |||||
| … |
Updated: 2009-04-14
NEWS
2009-06-18
General conclusions from the SOCOPSE project are now available online. 2009-04-03
"Future Approach to Priority and Emerging Substances in European Waters." 2009-04-03
Draft substance reports for Atrazine, Cadmium, Isoproturon, Mercury, PBDE, TBT, HCB, PAH, DEHP and...
Project conclusions available online
General conclusions from the SOCOPSE project are now available online. 2009-04-03
SOCOPSE Final Conference
"Future Approach to Priority and Emerging Substances in European Waters." 2009-04-03
New publications
Draft substance reports for Atrazine, Cadmium, Isoproturon, Mercury, PBDE, TBT, HCB, PAH, DEHP and...
FINANCIAL SUPPORT
Topics addressed: FP6-2005-Global-4, Topic: II. 3.1 Source control of priority substances
Project duration: 2006-2009
Contract no.: 037038
Project duration: 2006-2009
Contract no.: 037038
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